Reguła Taylora i jej rozszerzenia
Data publikacji: 31-08-2008
Gospodarka Narodowa 2008;225(7-8):1–23
The paper discusses the key aspects of research on a modern monetary policy rule proposed by American economist John B. Taylor in 1993. The Taylor rule stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual GDP from potential GDP and divergences of actual rates of inflation from a target rate of inflation. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (a "tight" monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate ("easy" monetary policy) in the opposite situations. Baranowski discusses many aspects of the Taylor rule, including the type of interest rates subject to analysis; the need to use real-time data; additional variables that may influence interest rates; the method of measuring variables; and the stability of the analyzed parameters. The paper also shows how the Taylor rule is used in practice. The rule can be used to analyze monetary policy, make international comparisons, and forecast interest rates. It can be an important component of both theoretical and empirical economic models, the author says.