The Determinants of Long-Term Unemployment in Poland: A Local Labor Market Perspective
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Publish date: 2015-08-31
Gospodarka Narodowa 2015;278(4):117–136
The paper attempts to identify and classify the determinants of long-term unemployment “in different types of local economies” in Poland. The analysis uses a binary logit model and data from six local labor offices. The sample covers 44,000 individuals registered as unemployed as of Dec. 31, 2010. Each county represented a different type of local economy. The results of the study show that only seven of a wide array of analyzed variables influenced the probability of long-term unemployment in the same way in all local economies. These are called universal factors. The authors find that, regardless of the considered type of local economy, women, people over 50, individuals without language skills, parents of small children, and individuals living in rural areas are at greater risk of long-term unemployment than other citizens. Young age and long work experience help avoid long-term unemployment, the authors note. The impact of other variables varied. County-specific factors included the level of educational attainment and disability. This means that groups at risk of long-term unemployment may vary significantly across local labor markets, the authors say. They suggest that new “unemployed profiling procedures” be introduced to identify job seekers especially at risk of long-term unemployment at the local level.