List of issues

Contents of issue 5/2017

Maciej Holko - Worker Savings, Foreign Investment and Capital Market Development: An Assessment of the Polish Government’s Action Plan from a Post-Keynesian Perspective, summary, article

Jacek Szlachta, Janusz Zaleski - Challenges of Future EU Cohesion Policy, summary, article

Joanna Stawska, Katarzyna Miszczyńska - The Impact of the European Central Bank’s Interest Rates on Investments in the Euro Area, summary, article

Waldemar Florczak - Impact of Population Aging on Poland’s Long-Term Economic Growth until 2050, summary, article

Jacek Liwiński - The Wage Premium from Postgraduate Programs, summary, article





Maciej Holko - Worker Savings, Foreign Investment and Capital Market Development: An Assessment of the Polish Government’s Action Plan from a Post-Keynesian Perspective

In February 2016, the Polish government adopted an Action Plan for Responsible Development and in July it came up with a draft Strategy for Responsible Development that was finally approved in February 2017. It seems that the drafters of the Action Plan and the Strategy drew heavily from the heterodox economy, including post-Keynesian theory and related concepts. In part, this was because they were mindful of the latest crisis and its implications for mainstream economics. However, there is an important divergence between the Polish government’s Capital Accumulation Program, which is part of the Action Plan/Strategy, and the role of savings as explained by post-Keynesians. The purpose of this paper is to use post-Keynesian/Kaleckian theory to prove that increasing workers’ savings through the development of the capital market, an approach that the government plans to support, is inconsistent with the rest of the Action Plan and contrary to the post-Keynesian policy of growth.

Keywords: Post-Keynesian, Kaleckian, paradox of thrift
JEL classification codes: E11, E12
Article: PDF



Jacek Szlachta, Janusz Zaleski - Challenges of Future EU Cohesion Policy

A debate on the shape of European Cohesion Policy (ECP) post-2020 has already started in the European Union. It is being waged amid unfavorable conditions, both internal and external. The global economic crisis that erupted after 2007 had a particularly strong effect on the EU, especially its weak and peripheral regions. In addition, Europe has faced a refugee crisis, an increased terrorism threat and anti-integration trends. All this poses a dramatic challenge to the future of the European Union, including ECP. The purpose of this paper is to answer the question of how to configure this sphere of the European Union’s structural intervention and adjust it to changing needs under adverse external and internal conditions. The paper describes the key features of ECP and real processes in the EU’s territorial systems. It also indicates the need to strengthen the territorial dimension of ECP. As ECP requires continued improvement, the paper presents an analysis and recommendations for greater creativity and flexibility of ECP, combined with necessary simplifications and increased effectiveness. Further on, the paper describes how ECP is financed in terms of its share of the EU budget, fund allocation criteria and the territorial scope of EU structural intervention. The complementarity and logic of interventions under individual European Structural and Investment Funds are analyzed.
The final section of the paper presents recommendations on how cohesion policy should be shaped after 2020.

Keywords: cohesion policy, EU structural intervention, global and European megatrends, regional development
JEL classification codes: F15, F63, R58, R59
Article: PDF



Joanna Stawska, Katarzyna Miszczyńska - The Impact of the European Central Bank’s Interest Rates on Investments in the Euro Area

The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the central bank’s interest rates on investments in the euro area. The results of the analysis indicate that in 1999-2016 the European Central Bank’s main interest rate lagged by two quarters had an inversely proportionally and statistically significant influence on the level of investment outlays in the euro area. The disturbances that euro-area economies were experiencing in the analysis period due to the recent financial crisis considerably weakened the monetary policy’s effect on the real economy. However, the relationship between the ECB’s main interest rate and investment outlays was statistically significant, implying that the interest rate played a role in the central bank’s influence on investments.

Keywords: central bank, interest rate, investments, euro area, VAR
JEL classification codes: E22, E43, E52, E58, F33
Article: PDF



Waldemar Florczak - Impact of Population Aging on Poland’s Long-Term Economic Growth until 2050

A number of demographic processes are ongoing that are bound to exert a far-reaching impact on economic activity through multifarious channels. These vital processes, which are largely exogenous to economic growth, should be perceived as a driving force of long-run socioeconomic development. The article deals with the main long-term macroeconomic consequences of population aging, chiefly its impact on economic prosperity as measured by GDP per capita in Poland until 2050. The starting point of the analysis is a macro-identity linking GDP per capita with various factors of production related to demographic indicators. Using a long-term demographic projection by Poland’s Central Statistical Office, an attempt is made to quantify the effects of demographic changes on the economy. The study employs quantitative methods such as econometric models, shift share and general equilibrium. The analysis finds that the demographic structure of Polish society will exert a diversified impact on GDP per capita. Initially, for about 15 years, this impact will be conducive to growth, but from the 2030 s onward it is likely to impede growth.

Keywords: GDP per capita decomposition, demographic conditions of growth, population aging
JEL classification codes: C53, C68, E17, J11
Article: PDF



Jacek Liwiński - The Wage Premium from Postgraduate Programs

This paper seeks to examine the impact of postgraduate non-degree programs undertaken by the employed in Poland on the level of their earnings in the main job. From a theoretical point of view, we can expect a positive impact of this kind of investment in human capital on the situation of individuals in the labor market. We conducted a short-run analysis using the Difference-in-Differences Propensity Score Matching (DID-PSM) method and data from the Polish Labor Force Survey (PLFS) for 2001–2013. The analysis shows that postgraduate programs had a positive impact on earnings only in 2009–2013. However, positive wage effects were also observed for the whole analyzed period for selected groups of graduates, specifically women and those employed in the public sector. Other than that postgraduate programs had no impact on the hourly earnings rate in the study period.

Keywords: postgraduate studies, employed, earnings, DID-PSM method
JEL classification codes: I26, J24, J31
Article: PDF

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