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Contents of issue 6/2015

Marek Lubiński - International Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy, summary, article

Piotr Karp - The Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Polish Economy, summary, article

Paweł Strzelecki, Joanna Tyrowicz - Inferring the Adequacy of Wage Expectations Among the Non-Working, summary, article

Michał Zajfert - Economic Conditions for the Functioning of Regional Passenger Transport in Poland, summary, article

Aneta Kosztowniak - TNC Expansion from 1990 to 2013, summary, article


WORLD ECONOMICS

Gene M. Grossman, Elhanan Helpman - Globalization and Growth, article

Paul M. Romer - Mathiness in the Theory of Economic Growth, article


REVIEWS

Book Review: Janusz Beksiak, O załamaniu i poprawie. Teksty publicystyczne (On Decline and Improvement: Essays), Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar, Warsaw 2015, 407 pp. - reviewed by Elżbieta Adamowicz

Book Review: John Bellamy Foster, Robert W. Mcchesney, Kryzys bez końca. Jak kapitał monopolistyczno-finansowy wywołuje stagnację i wstrząsy od Stanów Zjednoczonych po Chiny (The Endless Crisis: How Monopoly-Finance Capital Produces Stagnation and Upheaval from the USA to China), Instytut Wydawniczy Książka i Prasa, Warsaw 2014, 382 pp. - reviewed by Józef Niemczyk

Book Review: Anna Zorska, Małgorzata Molęda-Zdziech, Bohdan Jung (eds.), Kreatywność i  innowacyjność w  erze cyfrowej. Twórcza destrukcja 2 (Creativity and Innovation in the Digital Age: Creative Destruction 2), Oficyna Wydawnicza SGH, Warsaw 2014, 274 pp. - reviewed by Roman Wosiek


Index of Publications in 2015

List of Reviewers



Marek Lubiński - International Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy

The recent financial and economic crisis was followed by an unprecedented monetary policy response. Major central banks adopted a highly accommodative monetary policy stance, cutting their policy interest rates to near zero. Then, as the zero bound on nominal interest rates is a significant constraint on central bank action, further stimulus was provided by unorthodox tools. The paper investigates whether unconventional monetary policy produces spillover effects from advanced economies into emerging markets. While unconventional central bank interventions have mitigated dysfunction in targeted markets in developed countries, they could have produced spillover effects associated with the inflow of capital and higher volatility in currency and financial markets in developing countries.
The results suggest that there are indeed global spillovers and externalities from monetary policy decisions in advanced economies. However, it is difficult to determine whether such externalities are overall positive or negative for other economies, the author says.
The potentially undesirable effects of these measures on the procyclicality of capital flows to emerging market economies (EME) need to be weighed against potential benefits such as increased economic activity and better functioning of financial markets in the global economy. Recent research suggests that adjustments in policy rates and unconventional policies have similar cross-border effects on asset prices and economic outcomes. If that is so, the author argues, then the overall stance of policy accommodation matters more here than the particular form of easing.

Keywords: unconventional monetary policy, financial crisis, quantitative easing
JEL classification codes: E32, E52, G10
Article: PDF



Piotr Karp - The Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Polish Economy

The article analyzes the effects of the appreciation and depreciation of the Polish zloty against the euro. The author argues that sensitivity to the impact of exogenous shocks is a characteristic feature of small and medium-sized open economies, which also include Poland. According to Karp, exchange rate fluctuations are disturbances that have a strong impact on foreign trade, the price level and the entire economic system. Due to the complexity of the relationships between economic variables, an appropriate analysis must be conducted on a complete macroeconometric model, the author says. Analysis was conducted on a monthly model of the Polish economy (WM-1) that also contained asymmetric equations based on the threshold-error correction model (TECM). In two simulations, symmetric exogenous shocks – persistent for three months and directly causing the Polish zloty to either appreciate or depreciate – were assumed. These impulses set off the exchange rate multiplier effect and consequently the reaction of the whole economic system. The responses of the variables are asymmetric depending on the direction of the impulse, the author says. The simulation analysis shows stronger reactions when the zloty appreciates than when it depreciates. Although the initial impulse directly affects the “nominal” economy, its impact also influences the real economy by affecting production, investment and employment, the author concludes.

Keywords: zloty, euro, exchange rate, appreciation, depreciation, open economy
JEL classification codes: C51, C53, F31
Article: PDF



Paweł Strzelecki, Joanna Tyrowicz - Inferring the Adequacy of Wage Expectations Among the Non-Working

Reservation wages and expected wages constitute different categories, both conceptually and empirically. The aim of this article is the construction of a method for inferring the adequacy of both kinds of wage expectations among persons who are not employed.
This method is used to verify the hypothesis about the adequacy of reservation wages and expected wages among the unemployed in Poland. The key element of the analysis in this study is to what extent the reservation wages and wage expectations of the unemployed are in alignment with market conditions. We exploit a unique source of data on expected wages (National Bank of Poland survey) as well as data on reservation wages (Labour Force Survey) and develop a series of parametric and non-parametric counterfactual distributions for the registered unemployed. Our results indicate that expected wages are higher than reservation wages and continue to be positively correlated with wage pressure. We find that reservation wages in Poland from 2011 to 2014 were not excessive. This is important because if the wage expectations of the unemployed are in excess of market evaluation, unemployment and wage pressures prevail.

Keywords: Mincerian wage regression, counterfactual distribution, reservation wage, wage expectations, wage pressure, LFS
JEL classification codes: J31, J64
Article: PDF



Michał Zajfert - Economic Conditions for the Functioning of Regional Passenger Transport in Poland

The article examines the economic determinants of the functioning of regional passenger transport in Poland against the background of changes that have taken place in this sector since the beginning of the previous decade. These changes have covered both demand and supply, and they also include organizational changes in railway transport. The author argues that there are several economic reasons that the government is more involved in regional railway transport than in road transport. This thesis is supported by empirical data on selected segments of Poland’s transport sector collected by government’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) as well as by data from annual reports released by railway operators.
Data by the Central Statistical Office shows that the number of public transport passengers in outlying areas has decreased in recent years, the author says. This negative trend adds to the still unresolved problem of how regional railway transport should be organized.
A look at this problem in terms of a simple relationship between direct costs and possible income suggests that the only economically viable solution would be to abandon unprofitable services, the author adds; however, mass transit meets socially important tasks and is expected to benefit the public. The author’s analysis shows that it is possible to quantify the external costs of transport and determine the benefits to society. This makes it possible to define a reasonable level of subsidies for the operation of public transport so that the economic benefits for users and the general public could be maximized.

Keywords: public transport, railway transport, regional transport, public services
JEL classification codes: O18, R41, R42
Article: PDF



Aneta Kosztowniak - TNC Expansion from 1990 to 2013

The paper traces the expansion of transnational corporations (TNC), with a particular focus on their foreign subsidiaries, economic position and the key sectors in which they were involved from 1990 to 2013. The author asks three fundamental questions: 1) What significant changes occurred in the process of TNC expansion during this period? 2) Is the importance of TNCs from developing and transition economies growing? 3) What are the future prospects of TNC development in the global economy?
The paper is the result of a study of literature on the topic and UNCTAD statistical data.
The author formulates a thesis that the role of TNCs from developing and transition economies in foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown since the 1990 s, while the proportion of TNCs from developed countries has shrunk. This testifies to the growing investment power of corporations from developing and transition economies, and it also means that global competition will increase in the future, the author says.
According to the author, the main conclusions from the conducted analysis are as follows: 1) TNC expansion is intensifying, as reflected by an increased number of corporations and their subsidiaries abroad as well as their stronger economic position; 2) TNC from developing and transition economies play an increasing role in foreign investment; 3) In 2011, the value of FDI inflows to developed countries equalled that of FDI inflows to developing and transition countries; 4) Over the past decade, TNCs from Asia, especially China, have participated in many mergers and takeovers, achieving a positive net balance of acquisitions (versus the net balance of sales posted by corporations from developed countries such as the United States, Britain and Germany); 5) It is anticipated that global competition between TNCs will escalate because corporations from developing and transition countries aspire to maintain their fast-growing potential, while corporations from developed countries are seeking to regain their pre-crisis growth dynamics.

Keywords: transnational corporations, foreign subsidiaries, FDI, sectors, developed countries, developing countries
JEL classification codes: F21, F23, F60
Article: PDF

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