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Contents of issue 1-2/2006

Witold Jakóbik - The Dilemmas of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination, summary, article

Paweł Młodkowski - A Comparison of the Fiscal Convergence Experience in the CFA Franc Zone and the EMU, summary, article

Stanisław Cichocki - Sizing up the “Gray Zone”, summary, article

Łukasz Madej - The Influence of Select Factors on the Activity of Investors on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), summary, article

Michał Michalewski, Zofia Palica - Capital Market Reactions to Public Bids for the Sale of WSE- Listed Stock, summary, article


WARSAW SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS 1906-2006

Urszula Grzelońska - Aleksy Wakar (1898-1966), summary, article

Janusz Beksiak - Aleksy Wakar As a Teacher, summary, article


CONFRENCES - POLEMICS - REVIEWS

Modern Industrial Policy in the European Union - Wanda Karpińska-Mizielińska, Tadeusz Smuga

Book Review: Antoni Kukliński, Bogusław Skuza (eds.), Turning Points in the Transformation of the Global Scene, Oficyna Wydawnicza REWASZ, Warsaw 2006, 340 pp. - reviewed by Wojciech Burzyński

Book Review: Kazimierz A. Kłosiński, Andrzej Masłowski, Globalizacja sektora usług w Polsce (Service Sector Globalization in Poland), PWE, Warsaw 2005, 214 pp. - reviewed by Ireneusz Michałków

The Łomża Region: Prospects for Development - Tadeusz Smuga





Witold Jakóbik - The Dilemmas of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination

Monetary and fiscal coordination is extensively discussed in economic publications. The debate involves both mainstream and institutional economics as well as political sciences. The article contributes to this debate. It reviews theoretical positions adopted in mainstream economics and examines various aspects of the macroeconomic policy mix. The author selectively presents policy mix experiences in select regions of the world, specifically the European Monetary Union, the United States and Great Britain. The article confronts some theoretical studies with practice and points to the weaknesses of empirical testing based on econometric methods.
The author applies a historic/comparative method characteristic of qualitative research. The results of the analysis show that, unlike in Great Britain, monetary and fiscal coordination is missing in the euro zone and the United States. This is largely due to the equal status of the government and the central bank. Reviewing the methodological aspect of the problem, the author concludes that the empirical testing of models for the coordination of government and central-bank decisions should be supported with a comparative historical analysis.

Keywords: monetary and fiscal policy, coordination, policy mix
Article: PDF



Paweł Młodkowski - A Comparison of the Fiscal Convergence Experience in the CFA Franc Zone and the EMU

The aim of the paper is to present arguments for implementing fiscal policy constraints in monetary union member countries and to compare experience in this area in two non-European monetary unions in Africa and the EMU. The author offers a brief review of arguments—for and against fiscal convergence in a monetary union—presented in the literature on the subject. This empirical and theoretical review leads to the conclusion that, under some circumstances, there is a great need for fiscal policy coordination in monetary union member countries. The key question is how fiscal convergence should be designed and how multilateral surveillance should be enforced. To answer this question, the CFA Franc Zone experience with fiscal convergence criteria was compared with that of the EMU. The author notes that some fiscal convergence criteria are unique and specific for these groups of countries but some other criteria are common, regardless of the features of individual economies. Therefore fiscal coordination should be union-specific to avoid any disadvantages highlighted in theoretical analyses and resulting from decreased fiscal policy flexibility.

Keywords: fiscal policy, monetary union, coordination
Article: PDF



Stanisław Cichocki - Sizing up the “Gray Zone”

The article offers a critical review of methods for measuring the unregistered segment of the economy known as the “gray zone.” The first part of the article focuses on the definitions of the gray zone by economists and official institutions. Subsequently the author describes individual methods for measuring the off-the-books economy, showing their advantages and drawbacks. Additionally, methods used by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) for measuring the tax-evading segment of the economy are discussed. Also presented are gray zone statistics for individual member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) compared with estimates for Poland.
The key conclusion of the review is that there is no universal definition of the gray zone and that it is necessary to use several methods for measuring the hidden economy in a specific country. On the other hand, data on the size of the unofficial economy shows that this segment of the economy displays constant growth.

Article: PDF



Łukasz Madej - The Influence of Select Factors on the Activity of Investors on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE)

The article examines the influence of select factors on the attractiveness of a stock market and investor activity. The analysis covers the following factors: the number of new listings, the overall number of listed companies, market capitalization, the capitalization-to-GDP ratio, risk and rate of return. The author analyzes the linear relationship among individual factors, using the Pearson Correlation Coefficient. A Coefficient of Determination is also applied to establish how changes in one factor affect other factors.
The analysis of the linear relationship reveals that factors influencing the qualitative and quantitative development of the exchange are more strongly correlated with the volume of trading done by individual groups of investors than factors influencing the profitability of investment. There is a strong interdependence-confirmed by a high Coefficient of Determination-between the capitalization-to-GDP ratio (which illustrates the role of the stock exchange in the economy) and the volume of trading done by stock investors. Similarly, there is a strong interdependence between market capitalization and the volume of trading done by these investors. Finally, there is a close relationship between the number of new listings and the volume of trading done by individual, institutional and foreign investors. This shows that the popularity of the WSE among investors may substantially increase with an increased range of investment opportunities offered by the market-expressed by the number and value of listed instruments. It seems that new listings, especially those involving large companies that hold major shares in their respective markets, play a major role on the WSE.

Keywords: capital market, investment activity, stock investor
Article: PDF



Michał Michalewski, Zofia Palica - Capital Market Reactions to Public Bids for the Sale of WSE- Listed Stock

The authors set out to examine the reactions of the Polish capital market to public bids for the sale of listed stock. The basic method for evaluating the results of public bids for shareholders was an analysis of the rates of return for investment in shares in relation to the date of the bid. In their research, the authors limited themselves to analyzing the reactions of the capital market to transactions involving public bids.
The article discusses the results of research on a sample of 140 cases, with a specific date of the public bid and the behavior of stock quotations. The study shows that the bids substantially influenced rates of return for shares on the Polish capital market. Investments ranging from 30 days prior to the bid to 30 days after the bid usually yielded positive rates of return. Moreover, the first public bids on the Polish market, as a new trend, usually yielded higher rates of return than the next bids because the market quickly grew accustomed to them. The behavior of the Polish market-whereby relatively high rates of return continue for about two weeks after the bid—is in line with mature market standards.

Keywords: capital market, stock trades, rate of return
Article: PDF



Urszula Grzelońska - Aleksy Wakar (1898-1966)

Prof. Aleksy Wakar was an outstanding graduate and professor of the Warsaw School of Economics. He began his studies at SGH at the age of almost 30, following his tempestuous experiences during the Russian Revolution and the Civil War of 1917-1921. Several years of research work after graduation enabled him to write three significant books that eventually resulted in his promotion to professor. After World War II, Wakar excelled in organizational work. As rector and pro-rector of the school, he was in charge of the curriculum and the selection of lecturers. After a several-year hiatus (1950-1955) when he was imprisoned and detained in Soviet camps, Wakar started another stage of his research work at SGH, then renamed the Main School of Planning and Statistics (SGPiS). Together with his team, he developed an innovative theory of a centrally planned economy and trained a large group of economists who formed what was referred to as the “Wakar school.” He was a true master in developing and managing research teams.

Article: PDF



Janusz Beksiak - Aleksy Wakar As a Teacher

The author presents the figure of Prof. Aleksy Wakar as an academic teacher and mentor of young researchers.

Article: PDF

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