Contents of issue 3/2011
Stanisław Cichocki, Joanna Tyrowicz - The Determinants of Unregistered Employment in Poland During Periods of High and Low Economic Growth, summary
Witold Nowiński, Wanda Nowara - The Level and Determinants of Internationalization in Poland’s Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, summary
Tomasz Serwach - From Trade Between Countries to Trade Between Businesses, summary
Piotr Wdowiński - The Monetary Model of the Zloty-Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Cointegration Analysis, summary
Bartłomiej Rokicki - The Cohesion Policy Monitoring and Evaluation System in Poland, summary
Book Review: Maciej Bałtowski, Gospodarka socjalistyczna w Polsce, Geneza - Rozwój - Upadek
(The Socialist Economy in Poland: Rise, Development and Fall), Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN S.A., Warsaw 2009, 464 pp. - reviewed by Wacław Jarmołowicz
Book Review: Andrzej Karpiński, Co trzeba wiedzieć o studiach nad przyszłością
(What One Needs to Know About Studies of the Future), Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, Warsaw 2009, 99 pp. - reviewed by Tadeusz Smuga
Stanisław Cichocki, Joanna Tyrowicz - The Determinants of Unregistered Employment in Poland During Periods of High and Low Economic Growth
The article examines changes in the determinants of unregistered employment in Poland during periods of high and low economic growth. Using Labor Force Survey data and probit models, the authors analyze the structure and determinants of unregistered employment in 2003 and 2008. In 2003 unemployment ran high, while in 2008 joblessness was relatively low and accompanied by high wage pressure. The authors look at two groups of workers in the context of unregistered employment: those officially unemployed and those officially employed but seeking to supplement their incomes by taking up jobs in the unregistered segment of the economy.
After analyzing changes in basic demographic and socioeconomic variables, Cichocki and Tyrowicz conclude that unemployed individuals tend to take up jobs in the unregistered segment of the economy both when the labor market suffers from high unemployment and when wage pressure rises. Generally, the bargaining position of employees with regard to employers improved when the labor market revived and when the unregistered segment of the economy shrank in terms of both individual sectors and qualifications. Young unemployed people find it relatively easier to get informal work, the authors conclude, while no specific factors force young employees to look for jobs in the shadow economy.
Theoretically, the tax-evading, unregistered segment of the economy could be expected to display pro-cyclical changes, the authors say, shrinking in times of fast economic growth and expanding in periods of poor macroeconomic trends. But in reality the shadow economy provides a considerable measure of flexibility to employers, as a result of which unregistered employment tends to display countercyclical behavior, according to Cichocki and Tyrowicz.Keywords
: unregistered unemployment, tax evasion, shadow economy, business cycle, Labor Force Surveys, probit modelArticle
Witold Nowiński, Wanda Nowara - The Level and Determinants of Internationalization in Poland’s Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
The article deals with the determinants of the process of internationalization among small and medium-sized enterprises in Poland. In particular, Nowiński and Nowara set out to determine the relationship between the intensity of exports and the geographical diversification of exports, on the one hand, and variables such as the experience of companies on foreign markets, their size and the use of niche strategies, on the other. The analysis is based on empirical data obtained through a survey. Research methods used by the authors include non-parametric Spearman correlation analysis, Mann-Whitney U test, and multiple regression analysis. The results obtained show that the level of internationalization is related to factors such as company resources and skills as well as experience gained abroad—including both the experience of a company on export markets and experience brought to the company by international executives.
The authors found a significant relationship between imports of intermediate goods and the level of internationalization of enterprises. On the other hand, there is no significant relationship between the level of internationalization and the size of a company, the authors say. Nowiński and Nowara conclude that the intensity of exports depends on factors such as a company’s export experience and the level of global integration in a sector, while the number of foreign markets targeted is less significant. Generally, the analyzed variables better reflect the intensity rather than geographical diversification of exports, the authors say.Keywords
: internationalization, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), export intensity, geographical diversification, non-parametric Spearman correlation analysis, Mann-Whitney U test, multiple regression analysisArticle
Tomasz Serwach - From Trade Between Countries to Trade Between Businesses
The article focuses on the latest trends in the theory of international trade, which, according to the author, are relatively little known in Poland. Serwach sets out to show that the theoretical analysis of trade has evolved over the years toward purely microeconomic considerations. Referring to specific research reports, the paper describes the main directions of theoretical research today: a new theory of trade that takes into account the diversification of companies, a theory of trade conducted by multiproduct companies, and the so-called incomplete contract theory. Serwach shows that these new trends overlap and complement previously existing theories.
The overview of the latest theories of international trade presented in the article prompts several conclusions. One of these is that many theoreticians focus on the relationship between a company’s productivity and its decision to go international with its business.
The trends discussed in the article involve the problem of the significant role of fixed costs in shaping trade flows, the author says. Although the latest ideas make it possible to offer a theoretical explanation of many empirical phenomena in the trade of goods, Serwach says, these concepts have some limitations. These include the lack of in-depth modeling of demand and a tendency to ignore strategic interactions between firms.Keywords
: international trade, heterogeneity of firms, productivity, incomplete contract theoryArticle
Piotr Wdowiński - The Monetary Model of the Zloty-Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Cointegration Analysis
The author carries out a cointegration analysis for the nominal exchange rate of the zloty against the euro according to a monetary theory developed by U.S. economist Jeffrey A. Frankel (1979). Wdowiński estimates a cointegration vector for the period 1999M7-2008M9. Long-term estimates show that the euro exchange rate depends on changes in industrial production and on short- and long-term interest rates, the author says. The influence of M1 money supply proves to be statistically insignificant. The departure of the euro rate from a state of monetary equilibrium was corrected slowly, the author says, because the half-life of the divergence was almost two years.
The solution of the model showed that the euro exchange rate diverged significantly from a state of equilibrium determined by fundamental factors in the 1999M7-2004M1 period, while showing smaller deviations in the 2004M2-2008M9 period. Overall, the author observed periods when the zloty was both overvalued and undervalued against the euro due to a long-term equilibrium rate. The deviations stabilized noticeably from May 2003. In the 2003M5-2006M3 period, the zloty was overvalued by 9.6% on average, while in the 2006M4-2008M9 period it was undervalued by 9.3%. In the short term, the zloty tended to appreciate as a result of increases in short-term interest rates.
According to the author, fundamental economic factors in Poland and the euro area point to the existence of a trend whereby the zloty is gaining ground against the euro, while short-term changes in this rate may be significant due to a growing macroeconomic risk.Keywords
: Frankel monetary model, zloty/euro equilibrium exchange rate, cointegration analysis, vector error correction modelArticle
Bartłomiej Rokicki - The Cohesion Policy Monitoring and Evaluation System in Poland
The article takes a critical look at the system for monitoring and evaluating the European Union’s cohesion policy in Poland from 2007 to 2013. This system is a key component of structural policy. It is largely based on a set of monitoring indicators whose target values are determined on an ex ante basis at the programming stage. The achievement of these values largely determines the results of evaluation of the effectiveness of programs carried out, according to the European Commission.
The analysis is primarily based on an overview of conclusions included in studies of Poland’s cohesion policy monitoring and evaluation system, and on studies of the future reform of the European cohesion policy. Another source of information used in the analysis are experiences gathered by the author during a number of evaluation studies in which he has taken part.
According to Rokicki, the results of the analysis show that the monitoring and evaluation system is inefficient and does not measure up to expectations. Mistakes made at the stage of developing the system may adversely affect the effectiveness of structural policies. But this problem seems to apply not only to Poland, but all EU member countries, Rokicki says. The author does not limit himself to criticizing the existing monitoring and evaluation system, but proposes specific changes as the cohesion policy is expected to undergo reform.Keywords
: cohesion policy, European Union, monitoring, evaluation, reformArticle